Research
Complexity science, applied
I am a computer scientist first, trained in multi-agent systems and a builder by instinct, and what unifies my work is a method rather than a territory: the computational study of complex adaptive systems. That method is deliberately indifferent to domain. One repertoire (agent-based, system-dynamics, and discrete-event simulation, now coupled with generative AI) lets me ask a single question in many settings: how do adaptive agents, whether people, institutions, economies, or AI systems themselves, coordinate, anticipate, and govern their own behaviour under uncertainty? Pursuing it has taken me across suicide-prevention and health-system policy, the macroeconomics and labour dynamics of generative AI, the energy systems AI runs on, and, most recently, the internal architecture of agency and governance within AI agents and their collectives. I resist a single label because the problems that interest me live between fields, in the translation space where computational precision meets consequential decisions, and complex-systems thinking is how a computer scientist earns the right to work there.
Featured preprint · SSRN · revised July 2026
The Expansion Horizon: Generative AI Beyond the Reach of Current Economic Foresight
Ante , Jo-An Occhipinti, Pawel Swieboda, Roy Green, John Buchanan, Marcel Tanner
The four largest corporate adopters of AI grew revenue per employee by as much as 89% while their headcounts flatlined or fell. The most influential economic model of AI forecasts a productivity gain of roughly half a percentage point over ten years.
Both cannot be right.
This paper argues the discrepancy is not a data gap but a category error: generative AI is the irruption of a sixth technological revolution, and the models calibrated to the fifth are structurally incapable of seeing it.
Read the preprint →Academic publications
The complete peer-reviewed record of journal articles, reports, and commentary, searchable by title, venue, or author and filterable by type and year.
Research strands
Four areas where this approach is doing work now. Each strand collects its papers, reports, and commentary.
Social production
Social production and the Mental Wealth of nations
Valuing unpaid contribution and measuring national prosperity beyond GDP.
Explore this strand →Systems modelling
Systems modelling and simulation
Models that guide health and social policy and planning under uncertainty.
Explore this strand →Generative AI
Generative AI, labour, and the economy
How AI-driven labour displacement could reshape economies, and what a stable transition requires.
Explore this strand →GenAI and wellbeing
Generative AI, mental health and wellbeing
How generative AI affects mental health and wellbeing, and how it can be designed to support them.
Explore this strand →Youth mental health
Youth mental health and suicide prevention
Social determinants, service design, and the evidence behind Generation Mental Wealth.
Explore this strand →Visualisations and interactivities
Interactive models and explorable diagrams that accompany the research. They are built to be played with, not just read.
Interactive diagram
Rosen’s entailment graph
An interactive walk through Robert Rosen’s closure to efficient causation, the (M,R)-system behind anticipatory systems. It shows how that self-grounding maps onto the architecture of AI agents.
Open interactive ↗Data brief
Gold vs US Treasuries in official reserves
How central banks re-mixed their reserves after 2022, buying gold at roughly twice their former pace while the official bid for US Treasuries stalled. Interactive charts from World Gold Council and US Treasury TIC data.
Open charts ↗Research framework
Sectoral deployment dynamics
Ten sectors mapped on three dimensions: how far GenAI deployment has run, how elastic demand is, and how mature the implementation is. Demand elasticity decides whether productivity gains appear as expansion or as displacement.
Open interactive ↗Data brief
AI and IT employment: restructure under a flat headline
US tech employers convert headcount into AI capital while overall tech employment barely moves, and the same mechanism reaches India’s outsourcing rung. Measured BLS payroll series against the noisy monthly prints.
Open charts ↗Explorable diagram
Nvidia and CoreWeave: one counterparty, three positions
Nvidia supplies the hardware, owns close to six per cent of the equity, and pays as a customer. The circularity usually described as running between separate firms, mapped inside a single relationship from the SEC filings.
Open diagram ↗Model figure
The ignition boundary
An agent-based formalisation of Gaventa’s Power and Powerlessness. Quiescence fails as a cliff rather than a slope, and ideological spending funded from the extraction relationship stops working past a boundary it cannot move.
Open figure ↗