Research


Complexity science, applied

I am a computer scientist first, trained in multi-agent systems and a builder by instinct, and what unifies my work is a method rather than a territory: the computational study of complex adaptive systems. That method is deliberately indifferent to domain. One repertoire (agent-based, system-dynamics, and discrete-event simulation, now coupled with generative AI) lets me ask a single question in many settings: how do adaptive agents, whether people, institutions, economies, or AI systems themselves, coordinate, anticipate, and govern their own behaviour under uncertainty? Pursuing it has taken me across suicide-prevention and health-system policy, the macroeconomics and labour dynamics of generative AI, the energy systems AI runs on, and, most recently, the internal architecture of agency and governance within AI agents and their collectives. I resist a single label because the problems that interest me live between fields, in the translation space where computational precision meets consequential decisions, and complex-systems thinking is how a computer scientist earns the right to work there.

Featured preprint · SSRN · revised July 2026

The Expansion Horizon: Generative AI Beyond the Reach of Current Economic Foresight

Ante Prodan, Jo-An Occhipinti, Pawel Swieboda, Roy Green, John Buchanan, Marcel Tanner

The four largest corporate adopters of AI grew revenue per employee by as much as 89% while their headcounts flatlined or fell. The most influential economic model of AI forecasts a productivity gain of roughly half a percentage point over ten years.

Both cannot be right.

This paper argues the discrepancy is not a data gap but a category error: generative AI is the irruption of a sixth technological revolution, and the models calibrated to the fifth are structurally incapable of seeing it.

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Academic publications

The complete peer-reviewed record of journal articles, reports, and commentary, searchable by title, venue, or author and filterable by type and year.

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Visualisations and interactivities

Interactive models and explorable diagrams that accompany the research. They are built to be played with, not just read.

Interactive diagram

Rosen’s entailment graph

An interactive walk through Robert Rosen’s closure to efficient causation, the (M,R)-system behind anticipatory systems. It shows how that self-grounding maps onto the architecture of AI agents.

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Data brief

Gold vs US Treasuries in official reserves

How central banks re-mixed their reserves after 2022, buying gold at roughly twice their former pace while the official bid for US Treasuries stalled. Interactive charts from World Gold Council and US Treasury TIC data.

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Research framework

Sectoral deployment dynamics

Ten sectors mapped on three dimensions: how far GenAI deployment has run, how elastic demand is, and how mature the implementation is. Demand elasticity decides whether productivity gains appear as expansion or as displacement.

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Data brief

AI and IT employment: restructure under a flat headline

US tech employers convert headcount into AI capital while overall tech employment barely moves, and the same mechanism reaches India’s outsourcing rung. Measured BLS payroll series against the noisy monthly prints.

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Explorable diagram

Nvidia and CoreWeave: one counterparty, three positions

Nvidia supplies the hardware, owns close to six per cent of the equity, and pays as a customer. The circularity usually described as running between separate firms, mapped inside a single relationship from the SEC filings.

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Model figure

The ignition boundary

An agent-based formalisation of Gaventa’s Power and Powerlessness. Quiescence fails as a cliff rather than a slope, and ideological spending funded from the extraction relationship stops working past a boundary it cannot move.

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